Analysis
Monza vs Modena

Monza vs Modena

24 April 2026

By GoalPulz Editorial

GP
GoalPulz Pre-Match Analysis
Serie B·April 24, 2026
SERIE B
Monza Monza
VS
Modena Modena
17:00 | U-Power Stadium

Monza still chasing the title – can Modena stand in the way?

Monza is back on home soil and will face Modena in a match that looks straightforward on paper but requires respect for the visitors' offensive potential. Here's everything you need to know before kickoff.

Monza's unbeatable home form

Monza's season statistics tell a clear story: average 2.1 points per match, 60% win rate, and a defense that keeps a clean sheet in 60% of matches. These are figures that place Monza right at the top of Serie B.

In their last two matches, Monza has really shown its best face. A 3-0 away victory against Sampdoria followed by 2-0 at home against Bari 1908 demonstrates both quality in finishing and solidarity in defense. With just 1.1 goals against per match, Monza's defense is among the league's best.

Last 5 matches – Monza

April 17ASampdoria3-0
April 11HBari 19082-0
April 6ACatanzaro1-1
March 21HVenezia1-1
March 17AReggiana0-0

Modena – difficult to predict, easy to underestimate

With 1.2 points per match and only a 30% win rate, Modena looks like a team in crisis. But statistics don't lie – and the numbers show that Modena is incredibly offensive. As many as 80% of their matches end over 2.5 goals, and 80% of their matches feature both teams to score.

This is a team that believes in scoring first and thinking about defense later. In the match against Frosinone at home, they lost 1-2 last weekend, while Catanzaro drew with them 2-2. Modena concedes 1.8 goals per match – almost double Monza's total.

Last 5 matches – Modena

April 18HFrosinone1-2
April 14ACatanzaro2-2
April 11ASüdtirol1-1
April 6ABari 19081-3
March 21HMantova2-1

Head-to-Head: Monza took control

December 26, 2025Modena vs Monza1-2

In their only direct clash this season, Monza won 2-1 at Modena's home ground. This says much about Monza's ability to handle resistance – even when playing away against an offensive team.

Statistical depth

Monza's scoring percentage
91%
of matches include at least 1 goal
Monza's defensive strength
1.1
goals against per match (league best)
Modena's offensive trend
80%
of matches over 2.5 goals
Average corners
8.0
per match (both teams)

Where is the value?

High
Monza Over 1.5 Goals — Over
Monza scores in 91% of their matches. In their last two matches, they recorded 3-0 and 2-0. Modena defends poorly with 1.4 goals against per match on average. With Monza's offensive power and Modena's defensive weakness, there is a high probability that the home team will score more than 1 goal.
Odds 1.79+EV
High
Under 10.0 Corners — Under
Average 8.0 corners per match between these teams. Both Monza and Modena practice controlled play with few interruptions. Even with Modena's aggressive approach, fewer than 10 corners are expected based on historical meetings and season trends.
Odds 1.65+EV
Moderate
1X2 — 1 (Monza win)
Monza holds a 60% win rate with two straight victories. Modena has only a 30% win rate and poor form. Monza's home advantage is unbeatable. But Modena scores in 80% of their matches, so it won't be a walkover. Odds of 1.61 reflect Monza's favorite status, with value given their home dominance.
Odds 1.61+EV

The match in context

This is a match where the statistical indicators point toward Monza. The visitors from Modena are coming to one of the league's toughest stadiums without particularly good form, while Monza is on a winning streak. Although Modena's offensive abilities should not be ignored, it is difficult to see how they can keep pace with Monza's quality over 90 minutes.

The key for Modena will be to stay organized in defense and avoid the costly lapses that have marked their defensive work. For Monza, it's about keeping the tempo high from the first minute – they know Modena will strike back when the opportunity comes.

🎯 Our verdict
MAIN BET
Monza Over 1.5 Goals: Over @ 1.79
high probability Monza scores at least 1 goal with +low EV. Monza scores in high percentage of matches. Modena defends poorly with 1.4 goals against per match.
SUPPORTING BET
Under 10.0 Corners: Under @ 1.65
high probability Under 11.5 corners with +low EV. Average 8.0 corners. Both teams have controlled play with few interruptions.
RISK BET
1X2: 1 @ 1.61
Monza has moderate win rate and strong home advantage. 2 wins in last 2 matches. Modena with poor form (1 win in 5). Odds provide value.
GoalPulz · Responsible gambling · 18+

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